Extent and Causes of Chesapeake Bay Warming

Coastal environments such as the Chesapeake Bay have long been impacted by eutrophication stressors resulting from human activities, and these impacts are now being compounded global warming trends. However, there few studies documenting long-term estuarine temperature change relative contributions of rivers, atmosphere, ocean. In this study, warming, since 1985, is quantified using a combination cruise observations model outputs, to that estimated via numerical sensitivity experiments with watershed–estuarine modeling system. Throughout Bay’s main stem, similar rates found at surface bottom between late 1980s 2010s (0.02 ± 0.02°C/year, mean 1 standard error), elevated summer (0.04 0.01°C/year) lower winter (0.01 0.01°C/year). Most (~85%) driven atmospheric effects. The secondary influence ocean increases proximity mouth, where it accounts for more than half in waters. Sea level rise has slightly reduced riverine limited heads tidal tributaries. Future will depend not only on trends, but also regional circulation patterns mid-Atlantic waters, which currently faster atmosphere.